(AFP) A Hamas fighter on the roof top of the Palestinian Intelligence Security compound in Gaza City
 

 
It’s Israel that'll benefit from this split, which would push prospects of a Palestinian state further away.

By Amina Anderson

An uneasy calm returned to the Gaza Strip on Friday where Hamas is in full control after a week of factional fighting that claimed the lives of more than 100 people, forced hundreds of Palestinians to leave the chaotic strip and left the future of those who remained unknown.

Recent reports say Hamas fighters seized Fatah key strongholds in Gaza, including the headquarters of Fatah's Preventative Security force and the presidential compound in Gaza City.

Reacting to Hamas’ declaration of victory in Gaza, President Mahmoud Abbas took two decisions on Thursday that underscored his ineffectuality: first, he gave the green light to his Fatah fighters to strike back against Hamas – four days late. His second decision was to sack the Fatah-Hamas coalition government and declare a state of emergency, steps welcomed by the United States.

The Western-backed president said he would now rule by presidential decree until the conditions were right for early elections. Under the Palestinian Basic Law, essentially the Palestinian constitution, the president can rule by decree for 30 days. This can be extended with the approval of the parliament.

But analysts say Abbas’ moves are irrelevant as he has no influence in Gaza. Hamas is now the new owner of the Strip, with over 1.5 million Palestinians under their rule and there is nothing Abbas can do about this. Rejecting Abbas’ decision, Prime Minister Ismael Haniya, of Hamas, said his government will press on and that he will impose decisive law and order. In fact, Gaza residents say the neighborhoods under Hamas’ control are now safe and orderly.

However, Hamas’ political intentions are not clear. In the morning, a spokesman for the group declared that "the era of justice and Islamic rule has arrived." But in the afternoon, a more senior official, Abu Zuhri, downplayed the possibility that Hamas would impose an Islamic state in Gaza. "Nothing is going to be changed in the social and cultural life of our people," he said.

Whatever Hamas’ plans are, Abbas’ secular Fatah party has lost Gaza to its rival Islamic group that won a surprise victory in Palestinian elections in early 2006. All the beleaguered Palestinian leader can do now is to tighten his grip on West Bank territories, where his Fatah forces are stronger than those of Hamas, who are relatively weak there because of continued Israeli control. There are also fears that the violence in Gaza could spread to the Fatah-dominated West Bank. The al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, affiliated to Fatah, has called for "martial law" in the territories.

Correspondents say that the Palestinian territories are now split into two entities, with the West Bank under Abbas’ chaotic organization and weak leadership, and Gaza under Hamas. However, Prime Minister Haniya rejected the notion of a separate Gaza state, saying: "The Gaza Strip is an indivisible part of the homeland and its residents are an integral part of the Palestinian people."

But if it’s true that rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah would separate the West Bank from Gaza, then there will be no hopes for a peaceful settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It’s the Israelis who will ultimately benefit from this split, which would push prospects of a Palestinian state further away. Efforts to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, including a recent push by Arab states, would be dealt a major blow because Abbas could not longer claim that he’s representing all Palestinians and would certainly lose his credibility as a negotiating partner.

As for Israel, it would have to accept a bitter reality: Gaza is now ruled by Hamas, an organization that doesn’t recognize Israel, which considers it a terrorist group. So far, the Israelis have ruled out any military offensive against Gaza’s new rulers, but the military has sealed off the 30 mile long strip’s access by air, sea and land.

Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Israel wouldn’t allow the violence in Gaza to spill over into its soil, and warned that the Israelis have plenty of ways to strike back against Hamas: Israel can continue its strikes against Hamas installations and leaders, cut Gaza’s water and electricity supplies, and suspend aid convoys, further leading to a deeper humanitarian crisis. Already, two-thirds of Gazans live in poverty amid a punishing international aid boycott imposed after Hamas won parliamentary elections last year. 

On the other hand, some analysts say Hamas has been careful over the past week not to provoke Israel. Rocket attacks against Israel have almost stopped and Palestinian sources told the Times that Hamas ordered the criminal gang that abducted BBC correspondent Alan Johnston 95 days ago to release him. Hamas could further calm the situation by releasing Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was kidnapped last summer. On the Israeli side, some officials have started considering the unthinkable: that Israel may have no choice but to deal with the new rules of Gaza.

 
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